Sunday, June 20, 2010

Confirmed: The Bomb has been Dropped

I was shocked to figure out the truth: Nintendo is literally (and very deliberately) attempting to disrupt Sony's (and Microsoft's) HOME CONSOLES with a HANDHELD. It's unprecedented!

Ever since GDC2006 I've known that Nintendo's next move was 3d-- It just never occurred to me what they really had planned.

I read 2 interviews in the last couple days, one with Iwata and one with Reggie, where they both said quite clearly that Nintendo has been "looking at" and "planning to go" to 3d for over a decade. It's funny what, once they set their sights on destroying Sony*, they decided to do instead:

They waited, like a tiger stalking an unsuspecting bunnyrabbit, for Sony to rush into crappy and expensive 3d technology (shutter glasses. yuck.), and only then did they decide to pounce. They waited for Sony to do this with their home console, deliberately, so that they could use the 3ds to disrupt the same console a second time. Nintendo literally baited them into copying the motion controller and let them keep the illusion that 3d would be their "leg up" (and their savior hahaha), and then did this. I just cannot stop laughing about it: It's the final nail in the coffin! 

I sincerely believe that Sony will exit the video game market once the PS3 has run its course. With Nintendo making them look like fools time and time again, why would Sony's board of directors and shareholders allow them to sink another few hundred million into another console?

Sony did this to themselves. Check out this post about how Sony has set themselves up for Move to fail that I wrote back in August of last year. Sony's own executives and staff members have been trolling motion controls along with viral marketers for over 3 years (while, along with Microsoft, creating and perpetuating this anti-gamer "hardcore mentality"), but has now decided to release their own (backpedaling all the way), and they're just ripe to get annihilated this Christmas. The "hardcore" aren't interested in Move, the "casuals" aren't interested in Move, and this Christmas Nintendo has set up to make Sony's 3d push irrelevant with the superior 3d technology on the 3ds.

We don't know for sure that Nintendo is going to launch 3ds at Christmastime, but I think it's a pretty safe bet, as Nintendo has historically launched nearly every console and handheld they've ever made during the Christmas shopping season. Perhaps they believe that their old DS consoles still "have another Christmas in them", though, and will wait until Q1 2011? I could see this happening potentially, but I don't see the point: DS is in decline, and 3ds is poised to become the world's next must-have gadget.

A handheld disrupting the home console market, though... it's just too funny.

Note: If you do not understand what I mean about "set their sights on destroying Sony", it might be interesting for you to look at all the parallels this generation of consoles and handhelds. Malstrom is much better at making the comparison than i, but here are a couple examples that I can think of right off of the top of my head:

Nintendo always positions new hardware launches and press conferences right where they will damage Sony the most and "steal their thunder". They refused to announce a launch date for Wii back in 2006, until Sony announced the launch date for PS3. Shortly thereafter, they announced that the Wii would launch just a few days after PS3 did. Much more recently, Nintendo scheduled their pre-e3 press conference to end right before Sony's started-- They knew Sony would be touting 3d games, so what did they do? They showed off the 3DS at the end of the conference. People were still "high" from the experience as they walked through the doors to Sony's conference and ended up being thoroughly unimpressed by Sony's 3d showing. This is just 2 examples: Nintendo has been deliberately attacking "Sony's thunder" this entire generation, and it's very clear when you look closely.

My guess as to why the 3ds didn't get a price or launch date? I am pretty certain, actually, that they're simply waiting to see if Sony will make any announcements that they can "steal thunder" from. They have "no reason" to announce a launch date or price at this time, and they probably can't anyways since the 3ds is still in development.

7 comments :

  1. hi wiiboy101 here just thougfht id read up what you had to say this generation has gone exactly to how sean malstrom has stated to the letter in the exact order he stated,it has also gone acording to plan to what cubeboy101 stated between 2003 and 2005 at cube advance.com and other doochbag so called gaming sites yes cubeboy is me i uped to the current gen witrh my new name wiiboy it also is a way of saying that wii/ds will be together one day as a hybrid console idea i even said if 3ds was the hybrid dont be supprised but alas it wasnt

    oh i invested heavily in nintendo in early 2005 i adviced people on gaming sites including cubeadvance to do the same (kombo.com the dooch site) i invested 33k uk pounds or there abouts i walked away with well over 100k uk pounds it got the house im sitting in right now cash no morgage i new that disruption/innovation was coming and i said a 1000 times over nintendo is a sleeping dragon wen she awakes sony are screwed AGAIN i was ignored finding seans web site was a blessing i didnt realize there was others like me i actualy felt alone in my wisdom

    i was like nintendo shares will sky rocket ps3 will crash sony and noone would listen to me like i was the crazy guy in the village

    look who was right all along

    at first i thought sean malstrom had red my beliefs then copied them i soon realized it wasnt the case i was talking gaming and nintendo and innovation he was talking disrution purly in the bussiness sence....i agree 3ds is disrupting ps3 3d and sony its obvious

    3ds has x360/ps3 like abilitys/it has dsi like abilitys/it has psp like abilitys/it has wii like abilitys/it has honest to god it works 3D that is simply not comparable to ps3 psp and x360

    why bother with ps3 and tv sets and bluray this and that wen the 3DS offers 3d movies and programmes fully ds dsi backward play all new high powered graphics and 3d motion sencing cameras and analog stick its like a wii meets ps3 in the palm of your hand

    it is as sean says the ENDGAME iwata is saying next wii most likley 3D i think wen full size 3d tv sets start to come thru i.e 2012 is wen we may see wii 2 what the huck is i dont yet know maybe it will be wii backward compatable but also ds dsi 3ds compatable also and my hybrid dream will come true i think the days of stand alone home consoles are dieing it has to be a hybrid surly

    lol fine article

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  2. Thanks for reading and commenting wiiboy101. I too invested in nintendo shares before the Wii launched, and so did my Dad ;)

    Happy Father's day. I've always enjoyed reading your comments on various sites, and I thank you for commenting here.

    -"superfan" tactics.

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  3. finally like minded guys. I have only just stumbled on your site by accident but I will be a regular. Loving the industry as a business and as a consumer and it's a shame allot of gamers dont look at things in the business. I missed out on investing on the wii even though like you guys I said it will go through the roof and stocks for Ninty was so low due to the Cube.I just checked their stock now and it's already gone up by 50p.

    glad to meet your acquaintance and if only more gamers could stop being mindless sheep. Nintendo are the purist.

    any info please e-amil me at a_adji@hotmail.com

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  4. Excellent article! Though there are two things I found incorrect,

    1. "with the superior 3d technology on the 3ds." Ummm.. PS3's 3D is superior.. correct me if I'm wrong.

    2. "I sincerely believe that Sony will exit the video game market once the PS3 has run its course." What makes you say that? PS3 will sell around 75 -100 million easily. Gamecube sold 21 million. But Nintendo didn't exit the hardware market at all!

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  5. Hi Eddie,

    Thank you for your comment! I'm happy to elaborate on these things for you.

    I believe that the 3DS' 3D technology is superior to the 3D technology that Sony is using for a number of reasons:

    Sony is using shugger glasses to achieve their 3D effect. It darkens the screen, makes the graphics and resolution worse, and gives you headaches. Please read this article for more info on the downsides to shutter-glasses technology-- http://8bitdream.blogspot.com/2010/06/more-info-has-started-coming-in-on.html

    On top of that, Sony's technology is extremely expensive. In order to see the effect, you must buy a 3D television (which run upwards of 4k$ currently) as well as a pair of 3D shutter glasses for each person in your home (which run 150$ each).

    The 3D effect on the Nintendo DS does not share any of these issues. The screen is bright, you don't need glasses, and it is less likely to give you a headache because you're actually seeing 2 images at once (like in the movie theaters) rather than one-image-per-eye-at-a-time like shutter glasses.

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  6. Eddie,

    To respond to your second comment, I will point out a few important things:

    1) The number of units sold is only important when considering the profit made from those products to sharholders and investors. While the GameCube had "low" sales, Nintendo profited from every unit sold.

    2) The PlayStation 2 made Sony a considerable amount of money, which was then invested into research and development for the PlayStation 3. Sony decided to launch the PlayStation 3 as a "loss leader", meaning, the PlayStation 3 was sold at a loss when it first arrived to the market. Sony lost money for every unit sold.

    3) The PlayStation 3 still sells at a loss to this day. Even though the loss is much less than it was at launch, it is a loss of profits and therefore a liability to Sony's shareholders and investors still.

    4) The PlayStation 3 has notoriously cannibalized all profits ever made by Sony's video games department-- and then some. Every penny they made from the PS1 and PS2 generations are long gone, and the PlayStation 3 will never bring this division "into the black".

    5) The costs associated with the R&D for a new console are very high.

    6) Sony's investors and shareholders are likely pressuring Sony to "profit or bow out" of the market, because they are not interested in units sold-- only in profit.

    It is very unlikely at this point that Sony will continue in the video game market. They don't have the crazy amount of "disposable" income that Microsoft does, and with Sony's inability to compete in other markets where they were once strong (such as portable music players), it will soon be time for them to "refocus" their business model. A conglomerate like Sony can only survive by staying in markets where they have a strong foothold and have an opportunity to profit, and removing themselves from markets where they do not.

    The video game market is one of the markets where they no longer have a strong foothold with consumers and do not have an opportunity for profit at this time.

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  7. To respond to my compatriot above, and to Eddie..

    RIP Dreamcast :(

    It still hurts to this day.

    I sincerely doubt myself that Sony, unless something inside drastically changes, will continue to be in the market. Having two consoles that preform in the same way is unnecessary despite.

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